THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF FALSE POSITIVITY OF COVID-19 PCR TESTING IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC

Tomáš Karel; Petr Mazouch; Jakub Fischer

doi:10.52950/ES.2022.11.1.003

Authors

Tomáš Karel Prague University of Economics and Business, Czech Republic Author
Petr Mazouch Prague University of Business and Economics, Czech Republic, Czech Republic Author
Jakub Fischer Prague University of Business and Economics, Czech Republic, Czech Republic Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52950/ES.2022.11.1.003

Keywords:

Bayesian statistics, Macroeconomics, COVID-19, RT-PCR, False-positivity

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world, causing significant losses to global health, lives, and economic conditions. The process of testing using RT-PCR tests has also had serious economic impacts. The testing process may also sometimes result in erroneous outcomes, one of which is false positivity. This article uses a Bayesian approach to estimate the economic impacts of false-positive results. The Bayesian approach takes into account a prior probability distribution depending on the prevalence of the disease in the population. False-positive results can be minimized by retesting individuals who test positive but have no clinical symptoms of COVID-19. The costs of retesting these individuals are significantly lower than those associated with isolating them and quarantining their contacts.

Data:
Received: 11 Jan 2022
Revised: 3 Mar 2022
Accepted: 6 Apr 2022
Published: 20 Apr 2022